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About this project
The Birmingham Regional Housing Coordination Plan will study the Birmingham Metropolitan Planning Area (MPA) and 6 counties: Blount, Chilton, Jefferson, Shelby, St. Clair, and Walker.
This study will analyze demographic trends; assess housing stock, availability, and development patterns across the region; identify gaps in housing supply by unit type and income affordability; analyze linkages between housing, jobs, and workforce needs; identify places that are ready for housing growth, and evaluate existing barriers to housing production and access.
This project is led by the Regional Planning Commission of Greater Birmingham and consultants CommunityScale.
Project timeline
Key phases of the Birmingham Regional Housing Coordination Plan, from kickoff through data analysis, stakeholder engagement, and project completion.
- March 2026Project kickoffMilestoneRPC Greater Birmingham and the project team kicked off the 6-county and MPO-region housing study.
- June 2026Focus group meetingsFocus groupsThe project team met with stakeholders in the real estate and development, planning and economic development, and nonprofit sectors to review regional data and learn more about the housing landscape in greater Birmingham.
- Summer 2026Housing needs assessments and stakeholder surveysData & surveysIN PROGRESSThe project team will complete housing needs, workforce, and transportation data analysis, and survey local employers and municipal planners.
- Fall 2026Virtual focus groups, draft presentationsFocus groupsDrafts of the data and strategies will be shared with virtual focus groups.
- Early 2027Project completionMilestone
How affordable is this community?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B19013, B25082, B25090 · 2010–2024
- Zillow ZHVI
- FRED 30-year fixed mortgage rate
- Insurance premium rates (CommunityScale)
This chart tracks whether housing prices are keeping pace with local incomes. The gap between what homes cost and what households can afford reveals affordability trends over time.
| Geography | Home Price | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Typical | Affordable to median | Gap / Surplus | |
| Birmingham MPA Region | $298,869 | $367,924 | +$69,055 |
| Blount County, AL | $228,670 | $304,799 | +$76,129 |
| Chilton County, AL | $227,637 | $306,141 | +$78,504 |
| Jefferson County, AL | $235,706 | $282,851 | +$47,145 |
| St. Clair County, AL | $262,147 | $391,640 | +$129,492 |
| Shelby County, AL | $352,559 | $463,676 | +$111,118 |
| Walker County, AL | $130,644 | $240,895 | +$110,250 |
How are households changing by income?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B25007, B01001, B19001, B19113 · 2010–2024
- HUD Income Limits · FY 2025
- BLS CPI-U · 2010–2024
- Census PUMS 5-year · 2019–2023
Understanding how households at different income levels are growing or declining helps identify which groups face the greatest housing pressure and where new housing is most needed.
| AMI Group | Income Range | Households |
|---|---|---|
| <30% AMI | <$31K | 79,338 |
| 30-50% AMI | $31K - $52K | 57,572 |
| 50-80% AMI | $52K - $83K | 72,439 |
| 80-100% AMI | $83K - $104K | 38,446 |
| 100-120% AMI | $104K - $125K | 29,167 |
| >120% AMI | >$125K | 106,384 |
How is the population changing?
- Census Population Estimates Program (PEP) · 2010–2025
- ACS 5-year estimates · B01001 · 2010–2024
- CommunityScale population projection model
Population growth patterns reveal how communities are evolving. This chart shows historical population changes by age group and projects future trends based on demographic patterns.
Population change since a baseline year, broken out by age group. Each line shows the net gain or loss for one cohort, revealing which groups are driving growth or decline.
Historical population comes from the U.S. Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program (PEP): counties directly from PEP's annual estimates by age, and municipalities from PEP sub-county totals with age detail from the American Community Survey (ACS). Projections use CommunityScale's PEP-anchored cohort-migration forecast model.
The model follows each five-year age cohort through the community's 2010–2024 population history and projects those cohort trends forward, launching from the most recent PEP estimate (2025). Group-quarters residents — college dorms, prisons, military barracks, nursing facilities — do not follow household demographics, so they are separated out, projected on their own trend, and added back. In small communities, where year-to-year cohort data is noisy, the model blends each cohort's trend toward the community's recent overall trend to keep projections stable.
How are household types changing?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B09021, B11015, B19131 · 2010–2024
This chart shows how household composition has changed over time, comparing the distribution of household types between 2015 and 2023. Changes in household types can indicate shifting demographics and evolving housing needs in a community.
Households may have different structure type preferences depending on characteristics such as household size, income, employment, presence of children, age of individuals, and lifestyle choices. Understanding the housing stock in corresponding terms helps assess how well existing units align with existing households' ideals.
Cost burden measures the share of household income spent on housing. Households paying more than 30% are considered cost burdened, while those paying more than 50% are severely cost burdened. Lower-income households typically face the highest rates of cost burden.
Household type data comes from the American Community Survey (ACS) 5-year estimates. Household types include family households (married couples, single parents) and non-family households (people living alone, unrelated roommates).
What does the housing stock look like?
The mix of housing types and ownership patterns shapes a community's character. This chart breaks down housing units by structure type and whether they're owner-occupied or rented.
This chart shows rental and homeowner vacancy rates over time. A healthy rental vacancy rate is around 7.5%, and a healthy homeowner vacancy rate is around 1.5%. Rates well below these thresholds suggest a tight housing market with limited options for people looking to move.
How much new housing is being permitted?
Annual building permits reflect the pipeline of new housing construction. Single family permits show detached home building activity, while multifamily permits (units in buildings with 2+ units) indicate apartment and townhome development. Together they reveal how a community's housing supply is growing and what types of housing are being added.
Building permit data comes from the US Census Building Permit Survey, 2010-2024. Permits are reported by county and by permit-issuing place.
How is the job market changing?
Total job counts over time show how employment opportunities are growing or shrinking in a community. Comparing across geographies reveals which areas are attracting the most new employment.
Jobs grouped into four broad sector categories show the economic composition of a community.
The ratio of jobs to housing units indicates whether a community has a balance between employment opportunities and available housing.
Job counts are derived from the LEHD LODES Workplace Area Characteristics (WAC) dataset published by the US Census Bureau.
How much new housing supply is needed?
- ACS 5-year estimates · B25001, B25004, B25016, B25024, B25042, B25053 · 2020–2024
- HUD Income Limits · FY 2025
- Census PUMS 5-year · 2020–2024
To keep up with growth and fill current housing shortages, Birmingham MPA Region needs 20,613 new units over the next 5 years.
| 14,128 |
Units needed to keep up with expected growth
Projected total household growth from 2026 to 2031.
|
| 3.6% |
Projected household growth rate
Expected increase in total households from 388,774 in 2026 to 402,902 in 2031.
|
| 6,485 |
Units to address shortages in existing housing stock
Production needs to address vacancy rates and other factors.
|
| 3,677 |
Replacement housing
Effective annual loss rate is 1.7 per 1,000 units.
|
| 1,364 |
Ownership vacancy adjustment
Owner-occupied vacancy is 1.0%. This is below the minimum stable target of 1.5%.
|
| 1,269 |
Rental vacancy adjustment
Rental vacancy is 6.5%. This is below the minimum stable target of 7.4%.
|
| 175 |
Substandard housing adjustment
Substandard housing rate is 1.03%. This is above National avg. of 0.98%.
|
| 20,613 |
Total 5-year housing production need (2026-2031)
|
| 4,123 |
Annual production pace
Average units needed per year to meet 5-year need
|
| 4.8% |
Total housing unit growth
Percent increase in housing stock over 5 years
|
| 1.0% |
Annual housing unit growth
Average percent increase in housing stock per year
|